{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-01", "capture_ts": "2026-06-01T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 18, "data_vintage": "f1b21e70", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 291, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 344, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 43, "deaths_drc": 42, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 282, "confirmed_abroad": 9, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.182, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 3.998, "rt_ci_lo": 3.507, "rt_ci_hi": 4.521, "rt_n_cases": 238, "rt_date": "2026-06-01", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 3.998 [CI 3.507\u20134.521]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=3.998 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.18", "proxy_ratio": 1.182}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "9 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 9}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 291, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-08", "median": 681, "ci80_lo": 649, "ci80_hi": 713, "ci95_lo": 629, "ci95_hi": 735}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-15", "median": 1596, "ci80_lo": 1447, "ci80_hi": 1745, "ci95_lo": 1359, "ci95_hi": 1856}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "median": 8752, "ci80_lo": 7104, "ci80_hi": 10400, "ci95_lo": 6344, "ci95_hi": 11837}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-08", "eventual_observed": 598, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -12.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-15", "eventual_observed": 837, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -47.6, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "eventual_observed": 1333, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -84.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-29", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-02", "capture_ts": "2026-06-02T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 19, "data_vintage": "eaa728fe", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 332, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 363, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 49, "deaths_drc": 48, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 321, "confirmed_abroad": 11, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.093, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 3.605, "rt_ci_lo": 3.166, "rt_ci_hi": 4.072, "rt_n_cases": 242, "rt_date": "2026-06-02", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 3.605 [CI 3.166\u20134.072]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=3.605 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.093}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "11 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 11}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 332, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-09", "median": 730, "ci80_lo": 696, "ci80_hi": 764, "ci95_lo": 674, "ci95_hi": 786}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-16", "median": 1603, "ci80_lo": 1454, "ci80_hi": 1752, "ci95_lo": 1367, "ci95_hi": 1862}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "median": 7744, "ci80_lo": 6299, "ci80_hi": 9189, "ci95_lo": 5629, "ci95_hi": 10445}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-09", "eventual_observed": 635, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -13.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-16", "eventual_observed": 875, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -45.4, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-16", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "eventual_observed": 1406, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -81.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-03", "capture_ts": "2026-06-03T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 20, "data_vintage": "b13f8d88", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 378, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 381, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 63, "deaths_drc": 62, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 363, "confirmed_abroad": 15, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.008, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 3.358, "rt_ci_lo": 2.96, "rt_ci_hi": 3.78, "rt_n_cases": 256, "rt_date": "2026-06-03", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 3.358 [CI 2.960\u20133.780]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=3.358 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.01", "proxy_ratio": 1.008}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "15 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 15}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 378, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-10", "median": 795, "ci80_lo": 759, "ci80_hi": 831, "ci95_lo": 736, "ci95_hi": 855}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-17", "median": 1673, "ci80_lo": 1522, "ci80_hi": 1824, "ci95_lo": 1433, "ci95_hi": 1935}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "median": 7407, "ci80_lo": 6065, "ci80_hi": 8749, "ci95_lo": 5433, "ci95_hi": 9906}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-10", "eventual_observed": 676, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -15.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-17", "eventual_observed": 896, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -46.4, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "eventual_observed": 1460, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -80.3, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-04", "capture_ts": "2026-06-04T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 21, "data_vintage": "83799962", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 379, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 452, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 63, "deaths_drc": 62, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 363, "confirmed_abroad": 16, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.193, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.779, "rt_ci_lo": 2.441, "rt_ci_hi": 3.139, "rt_n_cases": 242, "rt_date": "2026-06-04", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.779 [CI 2.441\u20133.139]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.779 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.19", "proxy_ratio": 1.193}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "16 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 16}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 379, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-11", "median": 710, "ci80_lo": 677, "ci80_hi": 743, "ci95_lo": 656, "ci95_hi": 765}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-18", "median": 1330, "ci80_lo": 1207, "ci80_hi": 1453, "ci95_lo": 1134, "ci95_hi": 1544}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "median": 4665, "ci80_lo": 3795, "ci80_hi": 5535, "ci95_lo": 3393, "ci95_hi": 6293}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-11", "eventual_observed": 689, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -3.0, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-18", "eventual_observed": 933, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -29.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-18", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "eventual_observed": 1502, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -67.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-05", "capture_ts": "2026-06-05T23:22:19Z", "epidemic_day": 22, "data_vintage": "298fcf94", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 471, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 488, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 84, "deaths_drc": 82, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 452, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.259, "rt_ci_lo": 1.974, "rt_ci_hi": 2.563, "rt_n_cases": 225, "rt_date": "2026-06-05", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.259 [CI 1.974\u20132.563]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.259 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 471, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-12", "median": 777, "ci80_lo": 740, "ci80_hi": 814, "ci95_lo": 715, "ci95_hi": 839}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-19", "median": 1281, "ci80_lo": 1158, "ci80_hi": 1404, "ci95_lo": 1086, "ci95_hi": 1496}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "median": 3486, "ci80_lo": 2811, "ci80_hi": 4161, "ci95_lo": 2503, "ci95_hi": 4753}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-12", "eventual_observed": 782, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 0.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-19", "eventual_observed": 956, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -25.4, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "eventual_observed": 1528, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -56.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-06", "capture_ts": "2026-06-06T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 23, "data_vintage": "57e9d7e1", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 471, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 515, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 84, "deaths_drc": 82, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 452, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.093, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.052, "rt_ci_lo": 1.798, "rt_ci_hi": 2.324, "rt_n_cases": 233, "rt_date": "2026-06-06", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.052 [CI 1.798\u20132.324]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.052 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.093}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 471, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-13", "median": 732, "ci80_lo": 697, "ci80_hi": 767, "ci95_lo": 675, "ci95_hi": 791}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-20", "median": 1139, "ci80_lo": 1031, "ci80_hi": 1247, "ci95_lo": 968, "ci95_hi": 1327}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "median": 2753, "ci80_lo": 2229, "ci80_hi": 3277, "ci95_lo": 1990, "ci95_hi": 3737}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-13", "eventual_observed": 782, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 6.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-20", "eventual_observed": 1003, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -11.9, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "eventual_observed": 1561, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -43.3, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-07", "capture_ts": "2026-06-07T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 24, "data_vintage": "90043e6b", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 534, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 550, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 93, "deaths_drc": 91, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 515, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.03, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.787, "rt_ci_lo": 1.563, "rt_ci_hi": 2.025, "rt_n_cases": 229, "rt_date": "2026-06-07", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.787 [CI 1.563\u20132.025]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.787 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.03", "proxy_ratio": 1.03}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 534, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-14", "median": 763, "ci80_lo": 726, "ci80_hi": 800, "ci95_lo": 702, "ci95_hi": 824}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-21", "median": 1089, "ci80_lo": 985, "ci80_hi": 1193, "ci95_lo": 924, "ci95_hi": 1270}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "median": 2222, "ci80_lo": 1795, "ci80_hi": 2649, "ci95_lo": 1599, "ci95_hi": 3021}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-14", "eventual_observed": 808, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 5.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-14", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-21", "eventual_observed": 1048, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -3.8, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-21", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "eventual_observed": 1624, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -26.9, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-05", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-08", "capture_ts": "2026-06-08T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 25, "data_vintage": "a31c4419", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 569, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 598, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 103, "deaths_drc": 101, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 550, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.051, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.777, "rt_ci_lo": 1.566, "rt_ci_hi": 2.002, "rt_n_cases": 254, "rt_date": "2026-06-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.777 [CI 1.566\u20132.002]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.777 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.051}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 569, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-15", "median": 810, "ci80_lo": 773, "ci80_hi": 847, "ci95_lo": 749, "ci95_hi": 871}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-22", "median": 1153, "ci80_lo": 1049, "ci80_hi": 1257, "ci95_lo": 987, "ci95_hi": 1335}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "median": 2335, "ci80_lo": 1910, "ci80_hi": 2760, "ci95_lo": 1712, "ci95_hi": 3130}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-15", "eventual_observed": 837, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.3, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-22", "eventual_observed": 1094, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -5.1, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "eventual_observed": 1708, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -26.9, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-09", "capture_ts": "2026-06-09T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 26, "data_vintage": "343741d5", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 569, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 635, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 103, "deaths_drc": 101, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 550, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.116, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.732, "rt_ci_lo": 1.533, "rt_ci_hi": 1.944, "rt_n_cases": 272, "rt_date": "2026-06-09", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.732 [CI 1.533\u20131.944]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.732 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.12", "proxy_ratio": 1.116}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 569, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-16", "median": 797, "ci80_lo": 762, "ci80_hi": 832, "ci95_lo": 740, "ci95_hi": 856}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-23", "median": 1117, "ci80_lo": 1020, "ci80_hi": 1214, "ci95_lo": 962, "ci95_hi": 1287}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "median": 2193, "ci80_lo": 1807, "ci80_hi": 2579, "ci95_lo": 1625, "ci95_hi": 2912}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-16", "eventual_observed": 875, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 9.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-16", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-23", "eventual_observed": 1118, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 0.1, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-23", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "eventual_observed": 1759, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -19.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-10", "capture_ts": "2026-06-10T16:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 27, "data_vintage": "ac7851df", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 617, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 676, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 117, "deaths_drc": 115, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 598, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.096, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.735, "rt_ci_lo": 1.543, "rt_ci_hi": 1.938, "rt_n_cases": 295, "rt_date": "2026-06-10", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.735 [CI 1.543\u20131.938]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.735 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.10", "proxy_ratio": 1.096}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 617, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-17", "median": 865, "ci80_lo": 829, "ci80_hi": 901, "ci95_lo": 805, "ci95_hi": 926}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-24", "median": 1214, "ci80_lo": 1112, "ci80_hi": 1316, "ci95_lo": 1051, "ci95_hi": 1391}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "median": 2388, "ci80_lo": 1985, "ci80_hi": 2791, "ci95_lo": 1790, "ci95_hi": 3134}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-17", "eventual_observed": 896, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-24", "eventual_observed": 1155, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -4.9, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "eventual_observed": 1792, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -25.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-11", "capture_ts": "2026-06-11T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 28, "data_vintage": "4759701c", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 695, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 689, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 138, "deaths_drc": 136, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 676, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.991, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.304, "rt_ci_lo": 1.144, "rt_ci_hi": 1.475, "rt_n_cases": 237, "rt_date": "2026-06-11", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.304 [CI 1.144\u20131.475]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.304 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.991}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 695, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-18", "median": 818, "ci80_lo": 780, "ci80_hi": 856, "ci95_lo": 755, "ci95_hi": 882}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-25", "median": 963, "ci80_lo": 873, "ci80_hi": 1053, "ci95_lo": 820, "ci95_hi": 1120}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "median": 1334, "ci80_lo": 1083, "ci80_hi": 1585, "ci95_lo": 967, "ci95_hi": 1805}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-18", "eventual_observed": 933, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 14.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-18", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-25", "eventual_observed": 1203, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 24.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "eventual_observed": 1830, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 37.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-12", "capture_ts": "2026-06-12T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 29, "data_vintage": "75d17188", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 708, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 689, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 141, "deaths_drc": 139, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 689, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.973, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.282, "rt_ci_lo": 1.128, "rt_ci_hi": 1.447, "rt_n_cases": 247, "rt_date": "2026-06-12", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.282 [CI 1.128\u20131.447]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.282 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.97", "proxy_ratio": 0.973}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 708, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-19", "median": 825, "ci80_lo": 787, "ci80_hi": 863, "ci95_lo": 762, "ci95_hi": 888}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-26", "median": 961, "ci80_lo": 873, "ci80_hi": 1049, "ci95_lo": 821, "ci95_hi": 1115}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "median": 1303, "ci80_lo": 1062, "ci80_hi": 1544, "ci95_lo": 952, "ci95_hi": 1755}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-19", "eventual_observed": 956, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 15.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-26", "eventual_observed": 1274, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 32.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "eventual_observed": 1873, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 43.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-13", "capture_ts": "2026-06-13T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 30, "data_vintage": "0a61f079", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 708, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 782, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 141, "deaths_drc": 139, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 689, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.105, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.318, "rt_ci_lo": 1.165, "rt_ci_hi": 1.48, "rt_n_cases": 267, "rt_date": "2026-06-13", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.318 [CI 1.165\u20131.480]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.318 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.10", "proxy_ratio": 1.105}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 708, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-20", "median": 839, "ci80_lo": 802, "ci80_hi": 876, "ci95_lo": 778, "ci95_hi": 901}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-27", "median": 994, "ci80_lo": 906, "ci80_hi": 1082, "ci95_lo": 854, "ci95_hi": 1146}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "median": 1395, "ci80_lo": 1148, "ci80_hi": 1642, "ci95_lo": 1030, "ci95_hi": 1854}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-20", "eventual_observed": 1003, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 19.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-27", "eventual_observed": 1274, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 28.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "eventual_observed": 1926, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 38.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-14", "capture_ts": "2026-06-14T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 31, "data_vintage": "686bafb9", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 708, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 808, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 141, "deaths_drc": 139, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 689, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.141, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.219, "rt_ci_lo": 1.075, "rt_ci_hi": 1.372, "rt_n_cases": 258, "rt_date": "2026-06-14", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.219 [CI 1.075\u20131.372]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.219 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.14", "proxy_ratio": 1.141}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 708, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-21", "median": 800, "ci80_lo": 764, "ci80_hi": 836, "ci95_lo": 740, "ci95_hi": 860}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-28", "median": 903, "ci80_lo": 822, "ci80_hi": 984, "ci95_lo": 774, "ci95_hi": 1044}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "median": 1152, "ci80_lo": 944, "ci80_hi": 1360, "ci95_lo": 846, "ci95_hi": 1540}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-21", "eventual_observed": 1048, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 31.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-21", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-28", "eventual_observed": 1333, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 47.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-29", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 74.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-15", "capture_ts": "2026-06-15T22:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 32, "data_vintage": "798221fb", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 801, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 837, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 180, "deaths_drc": 178, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 782, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.045, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.089, "rt_ci_lo": 0.955, "rt_ci_hi": 1.231, "rt_n_cases": 239, "rt_date": "2026-06-15", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.089 [95% CI 0.955\u20131.231] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.089 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.045}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 801, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-22", "median": 844, "ci80_lo": 805, "ci80_hi": 883, "ci95_lo": 779, "ci95_hi": 910}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "median": 889, "ci80_lo": 806, "ci80_hi": 972, "ci95_lo": 757, "ci95_hi": 1034}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "median": 988, "ci80_lo": 802, "ci80_hi": 1174, "ci95_lo": 715, "ci95_hi": 1335}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-22", "eventual_observed": 1094, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 29.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "eventual_observed": 1333, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 49.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-29", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 103.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-16", "capture_ts": "2026-06-16T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 33, "data_vintage": "ad28eb7b", "extraction_type": "RETROACTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION", "extraction_note": "INRB upstream was not integrated into the system before 2026-06-17. This knowledge state is reconstructed retroactively from INRB data that was not available to decision-makers at the time.", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 856, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 875, "inrb_via_system": false, "deaths_total": 198, "deaths_drc": 196, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 837, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": "zone_active count from current INRB data; contemporaneous zone data unavailable for retroactive entries"}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.022, "inrb_ratio_note": "This ratio uses INRB data retroactively recovered from current upstream \u2014 not available to decision-makers at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.06, "rt_ci_lo": 0.93, "rt_ci_hi": 1.198, "rt_n_cases": 240, "rt_date": "2026-06-16", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.060 [95% CI 0.930\u20131.198] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.060 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.022}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 856, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-23", "median": 887, "ci80_lo": 846, "ci80_hi": 928, "ci95_lo": 819, "ci95_hi": 956}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "median": 919, "ci80_lo": 833, "ci80_hi": 1005, "ci95_lo": 783, "ci95_hi": 1069}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "median": 988, "ci80_lo": 803, "ci80_hi": 1173, "ci95_lo": 716, "ci95_hi": 1334}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-23", "eventual_observed": 1118, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 26.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-23", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "eventual_observed": 1406, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 53.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 115.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-17", "capture_ts": "2026-06-17T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 34, "data_vintage": "4b5784aa", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 856, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 896, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 198, "deaths_drc": 196, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 837, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.047, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.947, "rt_ci_lo": 0.826, "rt_ci_hi": 1.076, "rt_n_cases": 220, "rt_date": "2026-06-17", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.947 [95% CI 0.826\u20131.076] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.947 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.047}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 896, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-24", "median": 867, "ci80_lo": 825, "ci80_hi": 909, "ci95_lo": 797, "ci95_hi": 937}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "median": 838, "ci80_lo": 757, "ci80_hi": 919, "ci95_lo": 709, "ci95_hi": 980}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "median": 784, "ci80_lo": 630, "ci80_hi": 938, "ci95_lo": 560, "ci95_hi": 1073}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-24", "eventual_observed": 1155, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 33.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "eventual_observed": 1460, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 74.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 170.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-18", "capture_ts": "2026-06-18T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 35, "data_vintage": "8d0a7911", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 856, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 933, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 198, "deaths_drc": 196, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 837, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.09, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.029, "rt_ci_lo": 0.904, "rt_ci_hi": 1.162, "rt_n_cases": 244, "rt_date": "2026-06-18", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.029 [95% CI 0.904\u20131.162] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.029 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.09}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 933, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-25", "median": 950, "ci80_lo": 906, "ci80_hi": 994, "ci95_lo": 877, "ci95_hi": 1023}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "median": 966, "ci80_lo": 877, "ci80_hi": 1055, "ci95_lo": 824, "ci95_hi": 1122}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "median": 1001, "ci80_lo": 815, "ci80_hi": 1187, "ci95_lo": 728, "ci95_hi": 1349}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-25", "eventual_observed": 1203, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 26.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "eventual_observed": 1502, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 55.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 126.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-19", "capture_ts": "2026-06-19T22:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 36, "data_vintage": "f180f3aa", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 856, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 956, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 198, "deaths_drc": 196, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 837, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.117, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.918, "rt_ci_lo": 0.802, "rt_ci_hi": 1.043, "rt_n_cases": 221, "rt_date": "2026-06-19", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.918 [95% CI 0.802\u20131.043] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.918 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.12", "proxy_ratio": 1.117}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 956, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-26", "median": 907, "ci80_lo": 863, "ci80_hi": 951, "ci95_lo": 835, "ci95_hi": 981}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "median": 861, "ci80_lo": 778, "ci80_hi": 944, "ci95_lo": 729, "ci95_hi": 1007}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "median": 775, "ci80_lo": 624, "ci80_hi": 926, "ci95_lo": 556, "ci95_hi": 1060}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-26", "eventual_observed": 1274, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 40.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "eventual_observed": 1528, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 77.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 192.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-20", "capture_ts": "2026-06-20T10:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 37, "data_vintage": "827831bd", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 915, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1003, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 234, "deaths_drc": 232, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 896, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.096, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.909, "rt_ci_lo": 0.794, "rt_ci_hi": 1.033, "rt_n_cases": 221, "rt_date": "2026-06-20", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.909 [95% CI 0.794\u20131.033] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.909 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.10", "proxy_ratio": 1.096}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1003, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-27", "median": 946, "ci80_lo": 900, "ci80_hi": 992, "ci95_lo": 871, "ci95_hi": 1023}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "median": 892, "ci80_lo": 806, "ci80_hi": 978, "ci95_lo": 756, "ci95_hi": 1044}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "median": 793, "ci80_lo": 638, "ci80_hi": 948, "ci95_lo": 569, "ci95_hi": 1086}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-27", "eventual_observed": 1274, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 34.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "eventual_observed": 1561, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 75.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "eventual_observed": 2344, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 195.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-18", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-21", "capture_ts": "2026-06-20T10:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 38, "data_vintage": "827831bd", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 915, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1048, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 234, "deaths_drc": 232, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 896, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.145, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.982, "rt_ci_lo": 0.862, "rt_ci_hi": 1.11, "rt_n_cases": 240, "rt_date": "2026-06-21", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.982 [95% CI 0.862\u20131.110] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.982 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.15", "proxy_ratio": 1.145}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1048, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-28", "median": 1036, "ci80_lo": 988, "ci80_hi": 1084, "ci95_lo": 957, "ci95_hi": 1117}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "median": 1025, "ci80_lo": 930, "ci80_hi": 1120, "ci95_lo": 873, "ci95_hi": 1191}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "median": 1002, "ci80_lo": 814, "ci80_hi": 1190, "ci95_lo": 728, "ci95_hi": 1354}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-28", "eventual_observed": 1333, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 28.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-29", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "eventual_observed": 1624, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 58.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-05", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "eventual_observed": 2423, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 141.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-22", "capture_ts": "2026-06-20T10:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 39, "data_vintage": "827831bd", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 915, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1094, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 234, "deaths_drc": 232, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 896, "confirmed_abroad": 19, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.196, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.05, "rt_ci_lo": 0.926, "rt_ci_hi": 1.182, "rt_n_cases": 257, "rt_date": "2026-06-22", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.050 [95% CI 0.926\u20131.182] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.050 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.20", "proxy_ratio": 1.196}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "19 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 19}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1094, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "median": 1127, "ci80_lo": 1077, "ci80_hi": 1177, "ci95_lo": 1044, "ci95_hi": 1212}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "median": 1162, "ci80_lo": 1058, "ci80_hi": 1266, "ci95_lo": 995, "ci95_hi": 1343}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "median": 1233, "ci80_lo": 1010, "ci80_hi": 1456, "ci95_lo": 906, "ci95_hi": 1650}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-29", "eventual_observed": 1333, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 18.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-29", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "eventual_observed": 1708, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 47.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "eventual_observed": 2473, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 100.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-23", "capture_ts": "2026-06-23T09:38:40Z", "epidemic_day": 40, "data_vintage": "2d34ca0d", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1023, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 896, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 256, "deaths_drc": 254, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1003, "confirmed_abroad": 20, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.876, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.995, "rt_ci_lo": 0.874, "rt_ci_hi": 1.124, "rt_n_cases": 243, "rt_date": "2026-06-23", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.995 [95% CI 0.874\u20131.124] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.995 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "DIVERGENT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.88", "proxy_ratio": 0.876}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "20 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 20}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1023, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "median": 1020, "ci80_lo": 973, "ci80_hi": 1067, "ci95_lo": 942, "ci95_hi": 1099}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "median": 1017, "ci80_lo": 923, "ci80_hi": 1111, "ci95_lo": 867, "ci95_hi": 1181}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "median": 1010, "ci80_lo": 822, "ci80_hi": 1198, "ci95_lo": 735, "ci95_hi": 1363}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-06-30", "eventual_observed": 1406, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 37.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-06-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "eventual_observed": 1759, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 73.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 187.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-24", "capture_ts": "2026-06-24T22:04:11Z", "epidemic_day": 41, "data_vintage": "0f4aa5bd", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1115, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1094, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 279, "deaths_drc": 277, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1094, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.981, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.064, "rt_ci_lo": 0.939, "rt_ci_hi": 1.197, "rt_n_cases": 259, "rt_date": "2026-06-24", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.064 [95% CI 0.939\u20131.197] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.064 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.981}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1115, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "median": 1158, "ci80_lo": 1106, "ci80_hi": 1210, "ci95_lo": 1073, "ci95_hi": 1245}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "median": 1203, "ci80_lo": 1095, "ci80_hi": 1311, "ci95_lo": 1032, "ci95_hi": 1391}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "median": 1299, "ci80_lo": 1065, "ci80_hi": 1533, "ci95_lo": 955, "ci95_hi": 1734}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-01", "eventual_observed": 1460, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 26.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "eventual_observed": 1792, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 49.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 123.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-25", "capture_ts": "2026-06-25T05:45:34Z", "epidemic_day": 42, "data_vintage": "b0b70d5a", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1115, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1094, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 279, "deaths_drc": 277, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1094, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.981, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.114, "rt_ci_lo": 0.985, "rt_ci_hi": 1.251, "rt_n_cases": 270, "rt_date": "2026-06-25", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.114 [95% CI 0.985\u20131.251] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.114 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.981}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1115, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "median": 1191, "ci80_lo": 1139, "ci80_hi": 1243, "ci95_lo": 1105, "ci95_hi": 1279}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "median": 1273, "ci80_lo": 1161, "ci80_hi": 1385, "ci95_lo": 1094, "ci95_hi": 1468}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "median": 1454, "ci80_lo": 1196, "ci80_hi": 1712, "ci95_lo": 1074, "ci95_hi": 1933}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-02", "eventual_observed": 1502, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 26.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "eventual_observed": 1830, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 43.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "eventual_observed": 2973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 104.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-23", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-26", "capture_ts": "2026-06-26T09:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 43, "data_vintage": "86902f9f", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1138, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1118, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 293, "deaths_drc": 291, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1118, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.982, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.168, "rt_ci_lo": 1.036, "rt_ci_hi": 1.308, "rt_n_cases": 282, "rt_date": "2026-06-26", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.168 [CI 1.036\u20131.308]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.168 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.982}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1138, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "median": 1252, "ci80_lo": 1198, "ci80_hi": 1306, "ci95_lo": 1163, "ci95_hi": 1342}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "median": 1377, "ci80_lo": 1259, "ci80_hi": 1495, "ci95_lo": 1189, "ci95_hi": 1583}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "median": 1666, "ci80_lo": 1378, "ci80_hi": 1954, "ci95_lo": 1241, "ci95_hi": 2201}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-03", "eventual_observed": 1528, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "eventual_observed": 1873, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 36.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 92.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-27", "capture_ts": "2026-06-27T20:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 44, "data_vintage": "2aa949da", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1223, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1155, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 323, "deaths_drc": 321, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1203, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.944, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.125, "rt_ci_lo": 0.995, "rt_ci_hi": 1.262, "rt_n_cases": 271, "rt_date": "2026-06-27", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.125 [95% CI 0.995\u20131.262] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.125 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.94", "proxy_ratio": 0.944}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1223, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "median": 1315, "ci80_lo": 1257, "ci80_hi": 1373, "ci95_lo": 1219, "ci95_hi": 1411}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "median": 1413, "ci80_lo": 1289, "ci80_hi": 1537, "ci95_lo": 1215, "ci95_hi": 1628}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "median": 1633, "ci80_lo": 1346, "ci80_hi": 1920, "ci95_lo": 1208, "ci95_hi": 2166}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-04", "eventual_observed": 1561, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 18.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "eventual_observed": 1926, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 36.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 96.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-28", "capture_ts": "2026-06-28T23:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 45, "data_vintage": "4cda522e", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1223, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1203, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 323, "deaths_drc": 321, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1203, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.984, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.057, "rt_ci_lo": 0.932, "rt_ci_hi": 1.191, "rt_n_cases": 255, "rt_date": "2026-06-28", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.057 [95% CI 0.932\u20131.191] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.057 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.984}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1223, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "median": 1265, "ci80_lo": 1208, "ci80_hi": 1322, "ci95_lo": 1171, "ci95_hi": 1362}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "median": 1309, "ci80_lo": 1191, "ci80_hi": 1427, "ci95_lo": 1122, "ci95_hi": 1516}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "median": 1401, "ci80_lo": 1146, "ci80_hi": 1656, "ci95_lo": 1029, "ci95_hi": 1879}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-05", "eventual_observed": 1624, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 28.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-05", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 53.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "eventual_observed": 3262, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 132.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-26", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-29", "capture_ts": "2026-06-29T18:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 46, "data_vintage": "19aeb6af", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1223, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1203, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 323, "deaths_drc": 321, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1203, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.984, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.987, "rt_ci_lo": 0.866, "rt_ci_hi": 1.116, "rt_n_cases": 239, "rt_date": "2026-06-29", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.987 [95% CI 0.866\u20131.116] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.987 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.984}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1223, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "median": 1213, "ci80_lo": 1157, "ci80_hi": 1269, "ci95_lo": 1120, "ci95_hi": 1308}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "median": 1204, "ci80_lo": 1092, "ci80_hi": 1316, "ci95_lo": 1025, "ci95_hi": 1399}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "median": 1184, "ci80_lo": 961, "ci80_hi": 1407, "ci95_lo": 859, "ci95_hi": 1601}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-06", "eventual_observed": 1708, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 40.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 67.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "eventual_observed": 3360, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 183.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-06-30", "capture_ts": "2026-06-30T23:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 47, "data_vintage": "026615d6", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1294, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1274, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 362, "deaths_drc": 360, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1274, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.985, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.181, "rt_ci_lo": 1.049, "rt_ci_hi": 1.321, "rt_n_cases": 288, "rt_date": "2026-06-30", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.181 [CI 1.049\u20131.321]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.181 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.985}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1294, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "median": 1433, "ci80_lo": 1372, "ci80_hi": 1494, "ci95_lo": 1333, "ci95_hi": 1535}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "median": 1587, "ci80_lo": 1452, "ci80_hi": 1722, "ci95_lo": 1372, "ci95_hi": 1821}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "median": 1947, "ci80_lo": 1614, "ci80_hi": 2280, "ci95_lo": 1455, "ci95_hi": 2564}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-07", "eventual_observed": 1759, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 33.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 85.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-01", "capture_ts": "2026-07-01T13:28:01Z", "epidemic_day": 48, "data_vintage": "b8c3d5e6", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1294, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1333, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 362, "deaths_drc": 360, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1274, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.03, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.241, "rt_ci_lo": 1.105, "rt_ci_hi": 1.383, "rt_n_cases": 305, "rt_date": "2026-07-01", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.241 [CI 1.105\u20131.383]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.241 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.03", "proxy_ratio": 1.03}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1333, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "median": 1522, "ci80_lo": 1459, "ci80_hi": 1585, "ci95_lo": 1417, "ci95_hi": 1627}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "median": 1738, "ci80_lo": 1595, "ci80_hi": 1881, "ci95_lo": 1507, "ci95_hi": 1985}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "median": 2265, "ci80_lo": 1889, "ci80_hi": 2641, "ci95_lo": 1703, "ci95_hi": 2956}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-08", "eventual_observed": 1792, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 17.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 59.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-02", "capture_ts": "2026-07-02T11:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 49, "data_vintage": "79b7cadd", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1353, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1333, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 401, "deaths_drc": 399, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1333, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.985, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.206, "rt_ci_lo": 1.073, "rt_ci_hi": 1.346, "rt_n_cases": 299, "rt_date": "2026-07-02", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.206 [CI 1.073\u20131.346]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.206 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.985}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1353, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "median": 1518, "ci80_lo": 1455, "ci80_hi": 1581, "ci95_lo": 1413, "ci95_hi": 1624}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "median": 1703, "ci80_lo": 1561, "ci80_hi": 1845, "ci95_lo": 1475, "ci95_hi": 1949}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "median": 2143, "ci80_lo": 1784, "ci80_hi": 2502, "ci95_lo": 1609, "ci95_hi": 2807}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-09", "eventual_observed": 1830, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 33.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 68.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-03", "capture_ts": "2026-07-03T11:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 50, "data_vintage": "79e1b92f", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1426, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1406, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 440, "deaths_drc": 438, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1406, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.986, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.159, "rt_ci_lo": 1.029, "rt_ci_hi": 1.295, "rt_n_cases": 290, "rt_date": "2026-07-03", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.159 [CI 1.029\u20131.295]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.159 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.986}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1426, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "median": 1561, "ci80_lo": 1495, "ci80_hi": 1627, "ci95_lo": 1451, "ci95_hi": 1671}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "median": 1709, "ci80_lo": 1564, "ci80_hi": 1854, "ci95_lo": 1477, "ci95_hi": 1959}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "median": 2049, "ci80_lo": 1701, "ci80_hi": 2397, "ci95_lo": 1530, "ci95_hi": 2691}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-10", "eventual_observed": 1873, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 32.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "eventual_observed": 3674, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-03T00:02:11Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 79.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-31", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-04", "capture_ts": "2026-07-04T10:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 51, "data_vintage": "c7b96170", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1480, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1460, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 454, "deaths_drc": 452, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1460, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.986, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.135, "rt_ci_lo": 1.008, "rt_ci_hi": 1.27, "rt_n_cases": 287, "rt_date": "2026-07-04", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.135 [CI 1.008\u20131.270]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.135 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.986}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1480, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "median": 1600, "ci80_lo": 1532, "ci80_hi": 1668, "ci95_lo": 1487, "ci95_hi": 1714}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "median": 1729, "ci80_lo": 1582, "ci80_hi": 1876, "ci95_lo": 1495, "ci95_hi": 1985}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "median": 2020, "ci80_lo": 1674, "ci80_hi": 2366, "ci95_lo": 1509, "ci95_hi": 2662}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-11", "eventual_observed": 1926, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "eventual_observed": 2344, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 35.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-18", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "eventual_observed": 3748, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-04T00:00:16Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 85.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-05", "capture_ts": "2026-07-05T19:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 52, "data_vintage": "a55d93be", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1480, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1502, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 454, "deaths_drc": 452, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1460, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.015, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.254, "rt_ci_lo": 1.121, "rt_ci_hi": 1.395, "rt_n_cases": 321, "rt_date": "2026-07-05", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.254 [CI 1.121\u20131.395]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.254 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.01", "proxy_ratio": 1.015}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1502, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "median": 1726, "ci80_lo": 1656, "ci80_hi": 1796, "ci95_lo": 1611, "ci95_hi": 1843}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "median": 1983, "ci80_lo": 1823, "ci80_hi": 2143, "ci95_lo": 1728, "ci95_hi": 2261}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "median": 2619, "ci80_lo": 2195, "ci80_hi": 3043, "ci95_lo": 1988, "ci95_hi": 3402}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-12", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 16.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "eventual_observed": 2423, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "eventual_observed": 3802, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-05T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 45.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-06", "capture_ts": "2026-07-06T15:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 53, "data_vintage": "7ad9471e", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1480, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1528, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 454, "deaths_drc": 452, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1460, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.032, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.445, "rt_ci_lo": 1.303, "rt_ci_hi": 1.595, "rt_n_cases": 375, "rt_date": "2026-07-06", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.445 [CI 1.303\u20131.595]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.445 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.03", "proxy_ratio": 1.032}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1528, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "median": 1916, "ci80_lo": 1845, "ci80_hi": 1987, "ci95_lo": 1798, "ci95_hi": 2035}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "median": 2401, "ci80_lo": 2222, "ci80_hi": 2580, "ci95_lo": 2115, "ci95_hi": 2711}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "median": 3774, "ci80_lo": 3209, "ci80_hi": 4339, "ci95_lo": 2927, "ci95_hi": 4810}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-13", "eventual_observed": 2011, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 5.0, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "eventual_observed": 2473, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.0, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "eventual_observed": 3874, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-06T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 2.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-07", "capture_ts": "2026-07-07T19:56:22Z", "epidemic_day": 54, "data_vintage": "ab5d9b49", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1645, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1561, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 523, "deaths_drc": 521, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1624, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.949, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.342, "rt_ci_lo": 1.206, "rt_ci_hi": 1.485, "rt_n_cases": 353, "rt_date": "2026-07-07", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.342 [CI 1.206\u20131.485]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.342 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.95", "proxy_ratio": 0.949}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1645, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "median": 1971, "ci80_lo": 1896, "ci80_hi": 2046, "ci95_lo": 1846, "ci95_hi": 2097}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "median": 2361, "ci80_lo": 2180, "ci80_hi": 2542, "ci95_lo": 2070, "ci95_hi": 2673}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "median": 3388, "ci80_lo": 2866, "ci80_hi": 3910, "ci95_lo": 2606, "ci95_hi": 4345}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-14", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 7.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 23.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "eventual_observed": 3973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-07T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 17.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-08", "capture_ts": "2026-07-07T19:56:22Z", "epidemic_day": 55, "data_vintage": "ab5d9b49", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1645, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1561, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 523, "deaths_drc": 521, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1624, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.949, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.242, "rt_ci_lo": 1.112, "rt_ci_hi": 1.379, "rt_n_cases": 332, "rt_date": "2026-07-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.242 [CI 1.112\u20131.379]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.242 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.95", "proxy_ratio": 0.949}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1645, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "median": 1879, "ci80_lo": 1805, "ci80_hi": 1953, "ci95_lo": 1756, "ci95_hi": 2004}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "median": 2147, "ci80_lo": 1977, "ci80_hi": 2317, "ci95_lo": 1874, "ci95_hi": 2441}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "median": 2801, "ci80_lo": 2355, "ci80_hi": 3247, "ci95_lo": 2135, "ci95_hi": 3622}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-15", "eventual_observed": 2124, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 13.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 35.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 50.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-09", "capture_ts": "2026-07-07T19:56:22Z", "epidemic_day": 56, "data_vintage": "ab5d9b49", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1645, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1561, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 523, "deaths_drc": 521, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1624, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.949, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.205, "rt_ci_lo": 1.078, "rt_ci_hi": 1.339, "rt_n_cases": 328, "rt_date": "2026-07-09", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.205 [CI 1.078\u20131.339]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.205 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.95", "proxy_ratio": 0.949}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1645, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "median": 1845, "ci80_lo": 1772, "ci80_hi": 1918, "ci95_lo": 1723, "ci95_hi": 1968}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "median": 2068, "ci80_lo": 1903, "ci80_hi": 2233, "ci95_lo": 1804, "ci95_hi": 2354}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 2601, "ci80_lo": 2184, "ci80_hi": 3018, "ci95_lo": 1978, "ci95_hi": 3369}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-16", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "eventual_observed": 2973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 43.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-23", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 61.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-10", "capture_ts": "2026-07-07T19:56:22Z", "epidemic_day": 57, "data_vintage": "ab5d9b49", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1645, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1561, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 523, "deaths_drc": 521, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1624, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.949, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.241, "rt_ci_lo": 1.114, "rt_ci_hi": 1.375, "rt_n_cases": 345, "rt_date": "2026-07-10", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.241 [CI 1.114\u20131.375]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.241 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.95", "proxy_ratio": 0.949}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1645, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "median": 1878, "ci80_lo": 1805, "ci80_hi": 1951, "ci95_lo": 1758, "ci95_hi": 2000}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "median": 2144, "ci80_lo": 1978, "ci80_hi": 2310, "ci95_lo": 1878, "ci95_hi": 2432}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-07", "median": 2796, "ci80_lo": 2360, "ci80_hi": 3232, "ci95_lo": 2144, "ci95_hi": 3596}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-17", "eventual_observed": 2267, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 49.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-07", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 50.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-11", "capture_ts": "2026-07-11T06:19:49Z", "epidemic_day": 58, "data_vintage": "5f1fea31", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1813, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1561, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 627, "deaths_drc": 625, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1792, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.861, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.284, "rt_ci_lo": 1.155, "rt_ci_hi": 1.418, "rt_n_cases": 365, "rt_date": "2026-07-11", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.284 [CI 1.155\u20131.418]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.284 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "DIVERGENT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.86", "proxy_ratio": 0.861}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1813, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "median": 2114, "ci80_lo": 2034, "ci80_hi": 2194, "ci95_lo": 1981, "ci95_hi": 2247}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "median": 2464, "ci80_lo": 2278, "ci80_hi": 2650, "ci95_lo": 2164, "ci95_hi": 2784}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-08", "median": 3350, "ci80_lo": 2842, "ci80_hi": 3858, "ci95_lo": 2583, "ci95_hi": 4275}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-18", "eventual_observed": 2344, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 10.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-18", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 29.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-08", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-11T00:02:10Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 25.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-12", "capture_ts": "2026-07-12T12:27:41Z", "epidemic_day": 59, "data_vintage": "88d18d83", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1813, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1708, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 627, "deaths_drc": 625, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1792, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.942, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.182, "rt_ci_lo": 1.061, "rt_ci_hi": 1.31, "rt_n_cases": 344, "rt_date": "2026-07-12", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.182 [CI 1.061\u20131.310]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.182 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.94", "proxy_ratio": 0.942}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1813, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "median": 2009, "ci80_lo": 1931, "ci80_hi": 2087, "ci95_lo": 1880, "ci95_hi": 2140}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "median": 2226, "ci80_lo": 2053, "ci80_hi": 2399, "ci95_lo": 1950, "ci95_hi": 2526}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-09", "median": 2734, "ci80_lo": 2307, "ci80_hi": 3161, "ci95_lo": 2097, "ci95_hi": 3519}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-19", "eventual_observed": 2423, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "eventual_observed": 3262, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 46.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-26", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-09", "eventual_observed": 4381, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-12T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 60.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-13", "capture_ts": "2026-07-13T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 60, "data_vintage": "9aa7626a", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1813, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1792, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 627, "deaths_drc": 625, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1792, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.988, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.019, "rt_ci_lo": 0.907, "rt_ci_hi": 1.136, "rt_n_cases": 303, "rt_date": "2026-07-13", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.019 [95% CI 0.907\u20131.136] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.019 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.988}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1813, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "median": 1834, "ci80_lo": 1758, "ci80_hi": 1910, "ci95_lo": 1708, "ci95_hi": 1961}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "median": 1855, "ci80_lo": 1701, "ci80_hi": 2009, "ci95_lo": 1608, "ci95_hi": 2120}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-10", "median": 1899, "ci80_lo": 1583, "ci80_hi": 2215, "ci95_lo": 1427, "ci95_hi": 2480}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-20", "eventual_observed": 2473, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 34.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "eventual_observed": 3360, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 81.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-10", "eventual_observed": 4449, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-13T00:02:11Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 134.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-14", "capture_ts": "2026-07-14T23:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 61, "data_vintage": "15a3cc89", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1813, "source": "CDC", "inrb_confirmed": 1792, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 627, "deaths_drc": 625, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1792, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.988, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "CDC"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.013, "rt_ci_lo": 0.903, "rt_ci_hi": 1.129, "rt_n_cases": 308, "rt_date": "2026-07-14", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.013 [95% CI 0.903\u20131.129] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.013 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.988}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1813, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "median": 1827, "ci80_lo": 1752, "ci80_hi": 1902, "ci95_lo": 1703, "ci95_hi": 1953}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "median": 1842, "ci80_lo": 1690, "ci80_hi": 1994, "ci95_lo": 1599, "ci95_hi": 2104}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-11", "median": 1871, "ci80_lo": 1562, "ci80_hi": 2180, "ci95_lo": 1411, "ci95_hi": 2442}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-21", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 59.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 95.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-11", "eventual_observed": 4566, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-14T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 144.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-15", "capture_ts": "2026-07-15T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 62, "data_vintage": "77e0b050", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1947, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 1926, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 704, "deaths_drc": 702, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1926, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.989, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.071, "rt_ci_lo": 0.959, "rt_ci_hi": 1.189, "rt_n_cases": 332, "rt_date": "2026-07-15", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.071 [95% CI 0.959\u20131.189] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission could not be excluded at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.071 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.989}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 1947, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "median": 2031, "ci80_lo": 1951, "ci80_hi": 2111, "ci95_lo": 1898, "ci95_hi": 2165}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "median": 2118, "ci80_lo": 1950, "ci80_hi": 2286, "ci95_lo": 1849, "ci95_hi": 2408}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "median": 2304, "ci80_lo": 1937, "ci80_hi": 2671, "ci95_lo": 1757, "ci95_hi": 2979}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-22", "eventual_observed": 2905, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 43.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 70.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 114.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-16", "capture_ts": "2026-07-16T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 63, "data_vintage": "29d4d9a5", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1947, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2011, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 704, "deaths_drc": 702, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1926, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.033, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.157, "rt_ci_lo": 1.042, "rt_ci_hi": 1.279, "rt_n_cases": 365, "rt_date": "2026-07-16", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.157 [CI 1.042\u20131.279]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.157 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.03", "proxy_ratio": 1.033}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2011, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "median": 2199, "ci80_lo": 2116, "ci80_hi": 2282, "ci95_lo": 2062, "ci95_hi": 2339}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "median": 2405, "ci80_lo": 2223, "ci80_hi": 2587, "ci95_lo": 2115, "ci95_hi": 2721}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 2877, "ci80_lo": 2440, "ci80_hi": 3314, "ci95_lo": 2225, "ci95_hi": 3680}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-23", "eventual_observed": 2973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 35.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-23", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 49.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 71.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-17", "capture_ts": "2026-07-17T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 64, "data_vintage": "784ae260", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 1947, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2124, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 704, "deaths_drc": 702, "recovered_total": null, "confirmed_drc": 1926, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.091, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.233, "rt_ci_lo": 1.114, "rt_ci_hi": 1.357, "rt_n_cases": 394, "rt_date": "2026-07-17", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.233 [CI 1.114\u20131.357]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.233 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.091}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2124, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "median": 2416, "ci80_lo": 2328, "ci80_hi": 2504, "ci95_lo": 2270, "ci95_hi": 2562}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "median": 2747, "ci80_lo": 2548, "ci80_hi": 2946, "ci95_lo": 2425, "ci95_hi": 3090}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-14", "median": 3553, "ci80_lo": 3035, "ci80_hi": 4071, "ci95_lo": 2769, "ci95_hi": 4496}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-24", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 32.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "eventual_observed": 3674, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-03T00:02:11Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 33.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-31", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-14", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 39.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-18", "capture_ts": "2026-07-18T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 65, "data_vintage": "b5beb583", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2145, "source": "WHO_DON", "inrb_confirmed": 2124, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 830, "deaths_drc": 828, "recovered_total": 410, "confirmed_drc": 2124, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.99, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "WHO_DON"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.294, "rt_ci_lo": 1.173, "rt_ci_hi": 1.421, "rt_n_cases": 418, "rt_date": "2026-07-18", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.294 [CI 1.173\u20131.421]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.294 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.99}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2145, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "median": 2513, "ci80_lo": 2424, "ci80_hi": 2602, "ci95_lo": 2366, "ci95_hi": 2661}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "median": 2944, "ci80_lo": 2736, "ci80_hi": 3152, "ci95_lo": 2609, "ci95_hi": 3302}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-15", "median": 4040, "ci80_lo": 3467, "ci80_hi": 4613, "ci95_lo": 3174, "ci95_hi": 5084}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-25", "eventual_observed": 3200, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 27.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "eventual_observed": 3748, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-04T00:00:16Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 27.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-15", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 22.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-19", "capture_ts": "2026-07-19T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 66, "data_vintage": "4bc31f50", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2145, "source": "WHO_DON", "inrb_confirmed": 2124, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 830, "deaths_drc": 828, "recovered_total": 410, "confirmed_drc": 2124, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.99, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "WHO_DON"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.397, "rt_ci_lo": 1.272, "rt_ci_hi": 1.528, "rt_n_cases": 455, "rt_date": "2026-07-19", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.397 [CI 1.272\u20131.528]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.397 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.99}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2145, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "median": 2634, "ci80_lo": 2545, "ci80_hi": 2723, "ci95_lo": 2486, "ci95_hi": 2783}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "median": 3234, "ci80_lo": 3016, "ci80_hi": 3452, "ci95_lo": 2882, "ci95_hi": 3610}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-16", "median": 4876, "ci80_lo": 4215, "ci80_hi": 5537, "ci95_lo": 3873, "ci95_hi": 6077}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-26", "eventual_observed": 3262, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 23.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-26", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "eventual_observed": 3802, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-05T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 17.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-16", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 4.7, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-20", "capture_ts": "2026-07-20T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 67, "data_vintage": "d20db66a", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2344, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.991, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.406, "rt_ci_lo": 1.281, "rt_ci_hi": 1.537, "rt_n_cases": 462, "rt_date": "2026-07-20", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.406 [CI 1.281\u20131.537]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.406 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.991}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2365, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "median": 2915, "ci80_lo": 2817, "ci80_hi": 3013, "ci95_lo": 2753, "ci95_hi": 3079}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "median": 3594, "ci80_lo": 3353, "ci80_hi": 3835, "ci95_lo": 3206, "ci95_hi": 4009}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "median": 5461, "ci80_lo": 4725, "ci80_hi": 6197, "ci95_lo": 4345, "ci95_hi": 6797}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-27", "eventual_observed": 3360, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 15.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-27", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "eventual_observed": 3874, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-06T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 7.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -6.5, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-21", "capture_ts": "2026-07-21T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 68, "data_vintage": "dfbfb2f1", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2423, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.025, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.87, "rt_ci_lo": 1.726, "rt_ci_hi": 2.02, "rt_n_cases": 622, "rt_date": "2026-07-21", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.870 [CI 1.726\u20132.020]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.870 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.025}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2423, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "median": 3559, "ci80_lo": 3456, "ci80_hi": 3662, "ci95_lo": 3388, "ci95_hi": 3731}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "median": 5226, "ci80_lo": 4923, "ci80_hi": 5529, "ci95_lo": 4736, "ci95_hi": 5746}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-18", "median": 11273, "ci80_lo": 9963, "ci80_hi": 12583, "ci95_lo": 9259, "ci95_hi": 13625}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-28", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 1.3, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "eventual_observed": 3973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-07T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -24.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-18", "eventual_observed": 5290, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-22T07:00:24Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -53.1, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-22", "capture_ts": "2026-07-22T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 69, "data_vintage": "c84630a3", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2473, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.046, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.31, "rt_ci_lo": 2.151, "rt_ci_hi": 2.475, "rt_n_cases": 781, "rt_date": "2026-07-22", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.310 [CI 2.151\u20132.475]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.310 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.046}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2473, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "median": 4135, "ci80_lo": 4028, "ci80_hi": 4242, "ci95_lo": 3958, "ci95_hi": 4314}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "median": 6915, "ci80_lo": 6558, "ci80_hi": 7272, "ci95_lo": 6335, "ci95_hi": 7526}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-19", "median": 19333, "ci80_lo": 17330, "ci80_hi": 21336, "ci95_lo": 16227, "ci95_hi": 22903}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-29", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -12.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -39.1, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-19", "eventual_observed": 5290, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-22T07:00:24Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -72.6, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-23", "capture_ts": "2026-07-23T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 70, "data_vintage": "e2931252", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2473, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.046, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.25, "rt_ci_lo": 2.095, "rt_ci_hi": 2.411, "rt_n_cases": 778, "rt_date": "2026-07-23", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.250 [CI 2.095\u20132.411]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.250 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.046}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2473, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "median": 4069, "ci80_lo": 3964, "ci80_hi": 4174, "ci95_lo": 3894, "ci95_hi": 4245}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 6695, "ci80_lo": 6348, "ci80_hi": 7042, "ci95_lo": 6133, "ci95_hi": 7288}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-20", "median": 18123, "ci80_lo": 16243, "ci80_hi": 20003, "ci95_lo": 15209, "ci95_hi": 21476}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-30", "eventual_observed": 3605, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-02T11:52:02Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -11.4, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data. This is not asserted as ground truth \u2014 it is the current best available estimate and remains subject to future revision."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -37.1, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-20", "eventual_observed": 5375, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-23T15:00:23Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -70.3, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-20", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-24", "capture_ts": "2026-07-24T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 71, "data_vintage": "8dc3bd13", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2905, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.228, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.292, "rt_ci_lo": 2.138, "rt_ci_hi": 2.452, "rt_n_cases": 819, "rt_date": "2026-07-24", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.292 [CI 2.138\u20132.452]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.292 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.23", "proxy_ratio": 1.228}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2905, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "median": 4834, "ci80_lo": 4712, "ci80_hi": 4956, "ci95_lo": 4632, "ci95_hi": 5039}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-07", "median": 8045, "ci80_lo": 7639, "ci80_hi": 8451, "ci95_lo": 7386, "ci95_hi": 8740}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-21", "median": 22278, "ci80_lo": 20024, "ci80_hi": 24532, "ci95_lo": 18780, "ci95_hi": 26294}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-07-31", "eventual_observed": 3674, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-03T00:02:11Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -24.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-07-31", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-07", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -47.7, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-21", "eventual_observed": 5514, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-25T13:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -75.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-25", "capture_ts": "2026-07-25T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 72, "data_vintage": "547a80c0", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2973, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.257, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.288, "rt_ci_lo": 2.138, "rt_ci_hi": 2.444, "rt_n_cases": 856, "rt_date": "2026-07-25", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.288 [CI 2.138\u20132.444]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.288 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.26", "proxy_ratio": 1.257}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2973, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "median": 4942, "ci80_lo": 4820, "ci80_hi": 5064, "ci95_lo": 4741, "ci95_hi": 5146}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-08", "median": 8215, "ci80_lo": 7810, "ci80_hi": 8620, "ci95_lo": 7559, "ci95_hi": 8909}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-22", "median": 22702, "ci80_lo": 20459, "ci80_hi": 24945, "ci95_lo": 19219, "ci95_hi": 26695}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-01", "eventual_observed": 3748, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-04T00:00:16Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -24.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-01", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-08", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-11T00:02:10Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -48.8, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-22", "eventual_observed": 5514, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-25T13:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -75.7, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-22", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-26", "capture_ts": "2026-07-26T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 73, "data_vintage": "9b3f6055", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 2973, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.257, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.114, "rt_ci_lo": 1.974, "rt_ci_hi": 2.26, "rt_n_cases": 839, "rt_date": "2026-07-26", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.114 [CI 1.974\u20132.260]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.114 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.26", "proxy_ratio": 1.257}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 2973, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "median": 4708, "ci80_lo": 4591, "ci80_hi": 4825, "ci95_lo": 4514, "ci95_hi": 4905}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-09", "median": 7455, "ci80_lo": 7083, "ci80_hi": 7827, "ci95_lo": 6853, "ci95_hi": 8092}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 18694, "ci80_lo": 16826, "ci80_hi": 20562, "ci95_lo": 15798, "ci95_hi": 22026}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-02", "eventual_observed": 3802, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-05T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -19.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-09", "eventual_observed": 4381, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-12T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -41.2, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-09", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -69.7, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-27", "capture_ts": "2026-07-27T23:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 74, "data_vintage": "c87b2ceb", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 2365, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 3200, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 932, "deaths_drc": 930, "recovered_total": 466, "confirmed_drc": 2344, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.353, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 2.083, "rt_ci_lo": 1.948, "rt_ci_hi": 2.222, "rt_n_cases": 887, "rt_date": "2026-07-27", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 2.083 [CI 1.948\u20132.222]; consistent with accelerating growth at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "HIGH_AND_ACCELERATING", "evidence": "Rt=2.083 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "PARTIAL", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.35", "proxy_ratio": 1.353}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3200, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "median": 5022, "ci80_lo": 4900, "ci80_hi": 5144, "ci95_lo": 4819, "ci95_hi": 5225}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-10", "median": 7880, "ci80_lo": 7498, "ci80_hi": 8262, "ci95_lo": 7257, "ci95_hi": 8531}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "median": 19404, "ci80_lo": 17520, "ci80_hi": 21288, "ci95_lo": 16460, "ci95_hi": 22741}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-03", "eventual_observed": 3874, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-06T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -22.9, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-03", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-10", "eventual_observed": 4449, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-13T00:02:11Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -43.5, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-10", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -70.9, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-28", "capture_ts": "2026-07-28T23:05:03Z", "epidemic_day": 75, "data_vintage": "ac9a650c", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3283, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 3262, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1439, "deaths_drc": 1437, "recovered_total": 583, "confirmed_drc": 3262, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.994, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.635, "rt_ci_lo": 1.52, "rt_ci_hi": 1.754, "rt_n_cases": 752, "rt_date": "2026-07-28", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.635 [CI 1.520\u20131.754]; sustained growth above standard contact-tracing capacity at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD_HIGH", "evidence": "Rt=1.635 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=0.99", "proxy_ratio": 0.994}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3283, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "median": 4440, "ci80_lo": 4323, "ci80_hi": 4557, "ci95_lo": 4246, "ci95_hi": 4636}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-11", "median": 6005, "ci80_lo": 5688, "ci80_hi": 6322, "ci95_lo": 5490, "ci95_hi": 6546}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-25", "median": 10982, "ci80_lo": 9821, "ci80_hi": 12143, "ci95_lo": 9181, "ci95_hi": 13051}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-04", "eventual_observed": 3973, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-07T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -10.5, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-04", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-11", "eventual_observed": 4566, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-14T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -24.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-11", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-25", "eventual_observed": 5713, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-28T00:00:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -48.0, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-25", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-29", "capture_ts": "2026-07-29T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 76, "data_vintage": "55e84528", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3283, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 3360, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1439, "deaths_drc": 1437, "recovered_total": 583, "confirmed_drc": 3262, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.023, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.239, "rt_ci_lo": 1.143, "rt_ci_hi": 1.339, "rt_n_cases": 617, "rt_date": "2026-07-29", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.239 [CI 1.143\u20131.339]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.239 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.023}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3360, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "median": 3833, "ci80_lo": 3721, "ci80_hi": 3945, "ci95_lo": 3647, "ci95_hi": 4020}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "median": 4372, "ci80_lo": 4117, "ci80_hi": 4627, "ci95_lo": 3959, "ci95_hi": 4809}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-26", "median": 5688, "ci80_lo": 5023, "ci80_hi": 6353, "ci95_lo": 4666, "ci95_hi": 6882}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-05", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 9.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 13.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-26", "eventual_observed": 5794, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-29T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 1.9, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-26", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-07-30T23:05:04Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "7e2f2a25", "extraction_type": "CONTEMPORANEOUS", "extraction_note": null, "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3283, "source": "INRB_UMIE", "inrb_confirmed": 3360, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1439, "deaths_drc": 1437, "recovered_total": 583, "confirmed_drc": 3262, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56, "zones_note": null}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.023, "inrb_ratio_note": "Ratio from INRB upstream as captured in vintage log at this date.", "source_label": "INRB_UMIE"}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.175, "rt_ci_lo": 1.085, "rt_ci_hi": 1.268, "rt_n_cases": 632, "rt_date": "2026-07-30", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.175 [CI 1.085\u20131.268]; sustained transmission at this knowledge state. Estimate within right-truncation window (~12 d); contemporaneous interpretation likely underestimates transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.175 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated: right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 active zones", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline=1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.023}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3360, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt. Right-truncated Rt produces conservative projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3710, "ci80_lo": 3604, "ci80_hi": 3816, "ci95_lo": 3533, "ci95_hi": 3887}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 4096, "ci80_lo": 3861, "ci80_hi": 4331, "ci95_lo": 3714, "ci95_hi": 4498}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 4993, "ci80_lo": 4418, "ci80_hi": 5568, "ci95_lo": 4105, "ci95_hi": 6020}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 13.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 19.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-02T13:00:19Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "db40338", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.019, "rt_ci_lo": 0.938, "rt_ci_hi": 1.103, "rt_n_cases": 588, "rt_date": "2026-07-31", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.019; 95% CI [0.938, 1.103] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.019 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "56 zones active", "zones_active": 56}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3647, "ci80_lo": 3538, "ci80_hi": 3756, "ci95_lo": 3466, "ci95_hi": 3829}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 3689, "ci80_lo": 3469, "ci80_hi": 3909, "ci95_lo": 3332, "ci95_hi": 4066}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 3776, "ci80_lo": 3324, "ci80_hi": 4228, "ci95_lo": 3081, "ci95_hi": 4586}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 15.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 34.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 57.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-03T19:00:16Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "dbb28e7", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 57}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.895, "rt_ci_lo": 0.822, "rt_ci_hi": 0.972, "rt_n_cases": 548, "rt_date": "2026-08-01", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.822, 0.972] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.895 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "57 zones active", "zones_active": 57}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3368, "ci80_lo": 3264, "ci80_hi": 3472, "ci95_lo": 3196, "ci95_hi": 3543}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 3146, "ci80_lo": 2952, "ci80_hi": 3340, "ci95_lo": 2834, "ci95_hi": 3481}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 2745, "ci80_lo": 2405, "ci80_hi": 3085, "ci95_lo": 2228, "ci95_hi": 3362}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 25.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 57.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 116.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-04T11:00:18Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "e7da5f9", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.842, "rt_ci_lo": 0.773, "rt_ci_hi": 0.915, "rt_n_cases": 540, "rt_date": "2026-08-02", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.773, 0.915] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.842 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "62 zones active", "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3244, "ci80_lo": 3143, "ci80_hi": 3345, "ci95_lo": 3078, "ci95_hi": 3414}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 2919, "ci80_lo": 2738, "ci80_hi": 3100, "ci95_lo": 2628, "ci95_hi": 3232}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 2363, "ci80_lo": 2068, "ci80_hi": 2658, "ci95_lo": 1915, "ci95_hi": 2898}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 29.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 69.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 151.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-05T07:00:19Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "9d74911", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.776, "rt_ci_lo": 0.711, "rt_ci_hi": 0.845, "rt_n_cases": 514, "rt_date": "2026-08-03", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.711, 0.845] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.776 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3085, "ci80_lo": 2987, "ci80_hi": 3183, "ci95_lo": 2924, "ci95_hi": 3251}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 2640, "ci80_lo": 2472, "ci80_hi": 2808, "ci95_lo": 2371, "ci95_hi": 2931}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 1934, "ci80_lo": 1687, "ci80_hi": 2181, "ci95_lo": 1560, "ci95_hi": 2384}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 36.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 87.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 207.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-06T10:00:19Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "da1b128", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.788, "rt_ci_lo": 0.723, "rt_ci_hi": 0.857, "rt_n_cases": 532, "rt_date": "2026-08-04", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.723, 0.857] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.788 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 3114, "ci80_lo": 3016, "ci80_hi": 3212, "ci95_lo": 2954, "ci95_hi": 3279}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 2690, "ci80_lo": 2521, "ci80_hi": 2859, "ci95_lo": 2421, "ci95_hi": 2983}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 2008, "ci80_lo": 1755, "ci80_hi": 2261, "ci95_lo": 1625, "ci95_hi": 2468}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 35.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 83.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 196.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-07-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-10T04:00:19Z", "epidemic_day": 77, "data_vintage": "4d22130", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 3605, "source": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "inrb_confirmed": 3605, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1589, "deaths_drc": 1587, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 3584, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.0, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON614 (2026-07-30)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.701, "rt_ci_lo": 0.639, "rt_ci_hi": 0.767, "rt_n_cases": 461, "rt_date": "2026-08-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.639, 0.767] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.701 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 1.0, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 3605, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "median": 2898, "ci80_lo": 2800, "ci80_hi": 2996, "ci95_lo": 2738, "ci95_hi": 3063}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "median": 2330, "ci80_lo": 2173, "ci80_hi": 2487, "ci95_lo": 2080, "ci95_hi": 2603}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "median": 1506, "ci80_lo": 1302, "ci80_hi": 1710, "ci95_lo": 1200, "ci95_hi": 1879}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-06", "eventual_observed": 4209, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-10T05:00:22Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 45.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-08", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-13", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 112.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-08-27", "eventual_observed": 5945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 294.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-28", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-05", "capture_ts": "2026-08-10T08:06:14Z", "epidemic_day": 83, "data_vintage": "852c222", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4074, "source": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "inrb_confirmed": 3973, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1852, "deaths_drc": 1850, "recovered_total": 669, "confirmed_drc": 4053, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.975, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.701, "rt_ci_lo": 0.639, "rt_ci_hi": 0.767, "rt_n_cases": 461, "rt_date": "2026-08-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.639, 0.767] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.701 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 0.97", "proxy_ratio": 0.975, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4074, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "median": 3276, "ci80_lo": 3166, "ci80_hi": 3386, "ci95_lo": 3095, "ci95_hi": 3462}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-19", "median": 2634, "ci80_lo": 2457, "ci80_hi": 2811, "ci95_lo": 2351, "ci95_hi": 2941}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-02", "median": 1702, "ci80_lo": 1472, "ci80_hi": 1932, "ci95_lo": 1356, "ci95_hi": 2124}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-12", "eventual_observed": 4945, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 50.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-15", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-19", "eventual_observed": 5290, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-22T07:00:24Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 100.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-02", "eventual_observed": 6342, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-05T00:00:13Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 272.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-02", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-10", "capture_ts": "2026-08-10T08:41:23Z", "epidemic_day": 88, "data_vintage": "9d0e2c7", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4074, "source": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "inrb_confirmed": 4209, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1852, "deaths_drc": 1850, "recovered_total": 828, "confirmed_drc": 4053, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.033, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.701, "rt_ci_lo": 0.639, "rt_ci_hi": 0.767, "rt_n_cases": 461, "rt_date": "2026-08-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.639, 0.767] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.701 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.03", "proxy_ratio": 1.033, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4209, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "median": 3384, "ci80_lo": 3270, "ci80_hi": 3498, "ci95_lo": 3197, "ci95_hi": 3576}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "median": 2721, "ci80_lo": 2538, "ci80_hi": 2904, "ci95_lo": 2428, "ci95_hi": 3039}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "median": 1759, "ci80_lo": 1521, "ci80_hi": 1997, "ci95_lo": 1401, "ci95_hi": 2194}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 50.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 107.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "eventual_observed": 6757, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-10T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 284.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-10", "capture_ts": "2026-08-11T13:00:21Z", "epidemic_day": 88, "data_vintage": "e96cd31", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4074, "source": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "inrb_confirmed": 4381, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1852, "deaths_drc": 1850, "recovered_total": 828, "confirmed_drc": 4053, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.075, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.901, "rt_ci_lo": 0.829, "rt_ci_hi": 0.975, "rt_n_cases": 579, "rt_date": "2026-08-09", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.829, 0.975] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.901 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.07", "proxy_ratio": 1.075, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4381, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "median": 4109, "ci80_lo": 3986, "ci80_hi": 4232, "ci95_lo": 3904, "ci95_hi": 4313}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "median": 3855, "ci80_lo": 3625, "ci80_hi": 4085, "ci95_lo": 3480, "ci95_hi": 4247}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "median": 3391, "ci80_lo": 2985, "ci80_hi": 3797, "ci95_lo": 2764, "ci95_hi": 4117}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 24.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 46.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "eventual_observed": 6757, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-10T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 99.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-10", "capture_ts": "2026-08-12T11:00:19Z", "epidemic_day": 88, "data_vintage": "ae0c9b9", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4074, "source": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "inrb_confirmed": 4449, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1852, "deaths_drc": 1850, "recovered_total": 828, "confirmed_drc": 4053, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.092, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.918, "rt_ci_lo": 0.845, "rt_ci_hi": 0.995, "rt_n_cases": 575, "rt_date": "2026-08-10", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.845, 0.995] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.918 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "58 zones active", "zones_active": 58}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.092, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4449, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "median": 4221, "ci80_lo": 4094, "ci80_hi": 4348, "ci95_lo": 4012, "ci95_hi": 4435}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "median": 4005, "ci80_lo": 3764, "ci80_hi": 4246, "ci95_lo": 3618, "ci95_hi": 4422}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "median": 3606, "ci80_lo": 3170, "ci80_hi": 4042, "ci95_lo": 2942, "ci95_hi": 4395}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 41.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "eventual_observed": 6757, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-10T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 87.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-10", "capture_ts": "2026-08-13T16:00:21Z", "epidemic_day": 88, "data_vintage": "bc6b841", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4074, "source": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "inrb_confirmed": 4449, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 1852, "deaths_drc": 1850, "recovered_total": 828, "confirmed_drc": 4053, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 60}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.092, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "CDC Situation Summary (2026-08-05)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.973, "rt_ci_lo": 0.897, "rt_ci_hi": 1.053, "rt_n_cases": 593, "rt_date": "2026-08-11", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.973; 95% CI [0.897, 1.053] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.973 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "60 zones active", "zones_active": 60}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.09", "proxy_ratio": 1.092, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4449, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "median": 4375, "ci80_lo": 4246, "ci80_hi": 4504, "ci95_lo": 4162, "ci95_hi": 4592}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "median": 4302, "ci80_lo": 4048, "ci80_hi": 4556, "ci95_lo": 3893, "ci95_hi": 4740}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "median": 4160, "ci80_lo": 3667, "ci80_hi": 4653, "ci95_lo": 3407, "ci95_hi": 5051}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-17", "eventual_observed": 5105, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 16.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-17", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-24", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 31.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-07", "eventual_observed": 6757, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-10T00:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 62.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-07", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-16T12:09:40Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "04a86d7", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4566, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 60}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.974, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.973, "rt_ci_lo": 0.897, "rt_ci_hi": 1.053, "rt_n_cases": 593, "rt_date": "2026-08-11", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.973; 95% CI [0.897, 1.053] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.973 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "60 zones active", "zones_active": 60}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 0.97", "proxy_ratio": 0.974, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4686, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 4608, "ci80_lo": 4472, "ci80_hi": 4744, "ci95_lo": 4383, "ci95_hi": 4837}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 4531, "ci80_lo": 4263, "ci80_hi": 4799, "ci95_lo": 4100, "ci95_hi": 4993}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 4381, "ci80_lo": 3861, "ci80_hi": 4901, "ci95_lo": 3588, "ci95_hi": 5320}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 34.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 65.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-19T09:00:20Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "5f44117", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.311, "rt_ci_lo": 1.218, "rt_ci_hi": 1.408, "rt_n_cases": 736, "rt_date": "2026-08-15", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.311 [95% CI 1.218\u20131.408]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.311 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "62 zones active", "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 5840, "ci80_lo": 5684, "ci80_hi": 5996, "ci95_lo": 5582, "ci95_hi": 6101}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 6896, "ci80_lo": 6528, "ci80_hi": 7264, "ci95_lo": 6300, "ci95_hi": 7528}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 9616, "ci80_lo": 8586, "ci80_hi": 10646, "ci95_lo": 8027, "ci95_hi": 11459}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -3.2, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -11.5, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": -24.5, "direction": "OVERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-20T07:00:26Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "c388009", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.171, "rt_ci_lo": 1.083, "rt_ci_hi": 1.262, "rt_n_cases": 656, "rt_date": "2026-08-17", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.171 [95% CI 1.083\u20131.262]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.171 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "62 zones active", "zones_active": 62}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 5448, "ci80_lo": 5294, "ci80_hi": 5602, "ci95_lo": 5193, "ci95_hi": 5705}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 6003, "ci80_lo": 5665, "ci80_hi": 6341, "ci95_lo": 5454, "ci95_hi": 6581}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 7287, "ci80_lo": 6464, "ci80_hi": 8110, "ci95_lo": 6015, "ci95_hi": 8758}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.8, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 1.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": -0.4, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-22T07:00:24Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "4c48418", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 63}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.097, "rt_ci_lo": 1.013, "rt_ci_hi": 1.184, "rt_n_cases": 630, "rt_date": "2026-08-19", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.097 [95% CI 1.013\u20131.184]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.097 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "63 zones active", "zones_active": 63}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 5234, "ci80_lo": 5084, "ci80_hi": 5384, "ci95_lo": 4984, "ci95_hi": 5485}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 5540, "ci80_lo": 5222, "ci80_hi": 5858, "ci95_lo": 5024, "ci95_hi": 6085}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6208, "ci80_lo": 5493, "ci80_hi": 6923, "ci95_lo": 5104, "ci95_hi": 7487}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 8.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 10.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 16.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-23T15:00:23Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "0c1ae8c", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 63}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.062, "rt_ci_lo": 0.98, "rt_ci_hi": 1.147, "rt_n_cases": 621, "rt_date": "2026-08-20", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.062; 95% CI [0.980, 1.147] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.062 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "63 zones active", "zones_active": 63}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 5131, "ci80_lo": 4982, "ci80_hi": 5280, "ci95_lo": 4884, "ci95_hi": 5379}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 5324, "ci80_lo": 5016, "ci80_hi": 5632, "ci95_lo": 4824, "ci95_hi": 5852}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 5732, "ci80_lo": 5066, "ci80_hi": 6398, "ci95_lo": 4706, "ci95_hi": 6926}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 10.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 14.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 26.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-25T13:00:26Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "794eceb", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 64}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.941, "rt_ci_lo": 0.865, "rt_ci_hi": 1.019, "rt_n_cases": 569, "rt_date": "2026-08-22", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.941; 95% CI [0.865, 1.019] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.941 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "64 zones active", "zones_active": 64}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 4764, "ci80_lo": 4621, "ci80_hi": 4907, "ci95_lo": 4524, "ci95_hi": 5002}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 4589, "ci80_lo": 4312, "ci80_hi": 4866, "ci95_lo": 4138, "ci95_hi": 5061}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 4259, "ci80_lo": 3744, "ci80_hi": 4774, "ci95_lo": 3463, "ci95_hi": 5179}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 18.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 32.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 70.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-27T11:00:17Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "2ffb0e5", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 65}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.89, "rt_ci_lo": 0.817, "rt_ci_hi": 0.966, "rt_n_cases": 551, "rt_date": "2026-08-24", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.817, 0.966] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.890 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "65 zones active", "zones_active": 65}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 4604, "ci80_lo": 4462, "ci80_hi": 4746, "ci95_lo": 4368, "ci95_hi": 4841}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 4286, "ci80_lo": 4022, "ci80_hi": 4550, "ci95_lo": 3858, "ci95_hi": 4739}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 3714, "ci80_lo": 3254, "ci80_hi": 4174, "ci95_lo": 3010, "ci95_hi": 4542}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T12:00:18Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 22.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 42.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 95.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-27T15:00:21Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "a77235f", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 65}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.829, "rt_ci_lo": 0.759, "rt_ci_hi": 0.902, "rt_n_cases": 516, "rt_date": "2026-08-25", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.759, 0.902] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.829 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "65 zones active", "zones_active": 65}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 4407, "ci80_lo": 4267, "ci80_hi": 4547, "ci95_lo": 4175, "ci95_hi": 4642}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 3928, "ci80_lo": 3678, "ci80_hi": 4178, "ci95_lo": 3524, "ci95_hi": 4357}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 3120, "ci80_lo": 2722, "ci80_hi": 3518, "ci95_lo": 2512, "ci95_hi": 3838}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-27T16:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 28.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 55.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 132.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-16", "capture_ts": "2026-08-28T15:00:26Z", "epidemic_day": 94, "data_vintage": "ffe5a0f", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 4686, "source": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "inrb_confirmed": 4945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2186, "deaths_drc": 2184, "recovered_total": 986, "confirmed_drc": 4665, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.055, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON615 (2026-08-12)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.808, "rt_ci_lo": 0.739, "rt_ci_hi": 0.88, "rt_n_cases": 504, "rt_date": "2026-08-26", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.739, 0.880] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.808 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.055, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 4945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "median": 4338, "ci80_lo": 4198, "ci80_hi": 4478, "ci95_lo": 4107, "ci95_hi": 4572}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "median": 3806, "ci80_lo": 3561, "ci80_hi": 4051, "ci95_lo": 3411, "ci95_hi": 4227}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 2929, "ci80_lo": 2551, "ci80_hi": 3307, "ci95_lo": 2353, "ci95_hi": 3613}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-08-23", "eventual_observed": 5656, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-08-28T16:00:16Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 30.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-24", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-08-30", "eventual_observed": 6100, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-02T00:00:21Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 60.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-08-30", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 147.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-30T14:10:14Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "024c44b", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 5794, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.996, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.808, "rt_ci_lo": 0.739, "rt_ci_hi": 0.88, "rt_n_cases": 504, "rt_date": "2026-08-26", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.739, 0.880] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.808 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.00", "proxy_ratio": 0.996, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 5815, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5101, "ci80_lo": 4937, "ci80_hi": 5265, "ci95_lo": 4829, "ci95_hi": 5376}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 4476, "ci80_lo": 4188, "ci80_hi": 4764, "ci95_lo": 4011, "ci95_hi": 4970}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 3445, "ci80_lo": 3000, "ci80_hi": 3890, "ci95_lo": 2766, "ci95_hi": 4248}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 31.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 62.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-08-31T13:00:30Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "acef95a", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 5945, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.022, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.811, "rt_ci_lo": 0.742, "rt_ci_hi": 0.883, "rt_n_cases": 501, "rt_date": "2026-08-28", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.742, 0.883] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.811 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.022, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 5945, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5227, "ci80_lo": 5060, "ci80_hi": 5394, "ci95_lo": 4950, "ci95_hi": 5508}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 4596, "ci80_lo": 4301, "ci80_hi": 4891, "ci95_lo": 4121, "ci95_hi": 5103}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 3554, "ci80_lo": 3097, "ci80_hi": 4011, "ci95_lo": 2857, "ci95_hi": 4379}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 27.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 57.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-01T10:00:53Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "8e7508c", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.854, "rt_ci_lo": 0.782, "rt_ci_hi": 0.929, "rt_n_cases": 515, "rt_date": "2026-08-30", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.782, 0.929] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.854 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5537, "ci80_lo": 5362, "ci80_hi": 5712, "ci95_lo": 5245, "ci95_hi": 5830}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 5025, "ci80_lo": 4706, "ci80_hi": 5344, "ci95_lo": 4510, "ci95_hi": 5573}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 4140, "ci80_lo": 3613, "ci80_hi": 4667, "ci95_lo": 3334, "ci95_hi": 5091}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 20.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 44.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-02T13:00:22Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "57b4b71", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.893, "rt_ci_lo": 0.819, "rt_ci_hi": 0.971, "rt_n_cases": 530, "rt_date": "2026-08-31", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.819, 0.971] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.893 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5691, "ci80_lo": 5512, "ci80_hi": 5870, "ci95_lo": 5396, "ci95_hi": 5991}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 5309, "ci80_lo": 4976, "ci80_hi": 5642, "ci95_lo": 4773, "ci95_hi": 5883}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 4620, "ci80_lo": 4038, "ci80_hi": 5202, "ci95_lo": 3735, "ci95_hi": 5675}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 17.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 36.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-03T13:00:23Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "ae16ed1", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.921, "rt_ci_lo": 0.845, "rt_ci_hi": 1.001, "rt_n_cases": 537, "rt_date": "2026-09-01", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.921; 95% CI [0.845, 1.001] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.921 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5799, "ci80_lo": 5618, "ci80_hi": 5980, "ci95_lo": 5501, "ci95_hi": 6104}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 5514, "ci80_lo": 5170, "ci80_hi": 5858, "ci95_lo": 4960, "ci95_hi": 6107}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 4984, "ci80_lo": 4359, "ci80_hi": 5609, "ci95_lo": 4033, "ci95_hi": 6115}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 15.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 31.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-04T10:00:22Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "3593fee", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.957, "rt_ci_lo": 0.879, "rt_ci_hi": 1.039, "rt_n_cases": 548, "rt_date": "2026-09-02", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.957; 95% CI [0.879, 1.039] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.957 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 5938, "ci80_lo": 5755, "ci80_hi": 6121, "ci95_lo": 5636, "ci95_hi": 6245}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 5779, "ci80_lo": 5423, "ci80_hi": 6135, "ci95_lo": 5206, "ci95_hi": 6393}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 5476, "ci80_lo": 4799, "ci80_hi": 6153, "ci95_lo": 4444, "ci95_hi": 6701}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 12.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 25.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-05T15:00:25Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "ab0587d", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.007, "rt_ci_lo": 0.926, "rt_ci_hi": 1.092, "rt_n_cases": 567, "rt_date": "2026-09-03", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.007; 95% CI [0.926, 1.092] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.007 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "67 zones active", "zones_active": 67}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6126, "ci80_lo": 5940, "ci80_hi": 6312, "ci95_lo": 5819, "ci95_hi": 6439}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6152, "ci80_lo": 5778, "ci80_hi": 6526, "ci95_lo": 5550, "ci95_hi": 6796}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 6205, "ci80_lo": 5448, "ci80_hi": 6962, "ci95_lo": 5050, "ci95_hi": 7572}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 9.1, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 18.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-06T16:00:18Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "b7a4f1f", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.041, "rt_ci_lo": 0.958, "rt_ci_hi": 1.127, "rt_n_cases": 577, "rt_date": "2026-09-04", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.041; 95% CI [0.958, 1.127] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.041 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6252, "ci80_lo": 6065, "ci80_hi": 6439, "ci95_lo": 5941, "ci95_hi": 6565}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6409, "ci80_lo": 6026, "ci80_hi": 6792, "ci95_lo": 5787, "ci95_hi": 7065}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 6733, "ci80_lo": 5925, "ci80_hi": 7541, "ci95_lo": 5490, "ci95_hi": 8182}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 6.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 13.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-07T10:00:25Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "dc1eea4", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.063, "rt_ci_lo": 0.978, "rt_ci_hi": 1.151, "rt_n_cases": 582, "rt_date": "2026-09-05", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.063; 95% CI [0.978, 1.151] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.063 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6333, "ci80_lo": 6143, "ci80_hi": 6523, "ci95_lo": 6017, "ci95_hi": 6650}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6575, "ci80_lo": 6181, "ci80_hi": 6969, "ci95_lo": 5936, "ci95_hi": 7250}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 7088, "ci80_lo": 6236, "ci80_hi": 7940, "ci95_lo": 5776, "ci95_hi": 8617}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 5.6, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 10.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-08T12:00:28Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "d0d369e", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.08, "rt_ci_lo": 0.994, "rt_ci_hi": 1.169, "rt_n_cases": 586, "rt_date": "2026-09-06", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.080; 95% CI [0.994, 1.169] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.080 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6395, "ci80_lo": 6204, "ci80_hi": 6586, "ci95_lo": 6078, "ci95_hi": 6714}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6705, "ci80_lo": 6305, "ci80_hi": 7105, "ci95_lo": 6055, "ci95_hi": 7389}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 7369, "ci80_lo": 6487, "ci80_hi": 8251, "ci95_lo": 6010, "ci95_hi": 8951}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T00:00:15Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 4.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 8.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-09T12:00:27Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "bfbc5b5", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.058, "rt_ci_lo": 0.973, "rt_ci_hi": 1.146, "rt_n_cases": 571, "rt_date": "2026-09-07", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.058; 95% CI [0.973, 1.146] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.058 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6315, "ci80_lo": 6125, "ci80_hi": 6505, "ci95_lo": 5998, "ci95_hi": 6632}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6537, "ci80_lo": 6143, "ci80_hi": 6931, "ci95_lo": 5898, "ci95_hi": 7211}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 7006, "ci80_lo": 6159, "ci80_hi": 7853, "ci95_lo": 5703, "ci95_hi": 8525}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-09T13:00:18Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 5.9, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 11.0, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-08-30", "capture_ts": "2026-09-10T11:00:28Z", "epidemic_day": 108, "data_vintage": "69a36e7", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 5815, "source": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "inrb_confirmed": 6100, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 2788, "deaths_drc": 2786, "recovered_total": 1314, "confirmed_drc": 5794, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.049, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON616 (2026-08-26)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.1, "rt_ci_lo": 1.013, "rt_ci_hi": 1.19, "rt_n_cases": 593, "rt_date": "2026-09-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.100 [95% CI 1.013\u20131.190]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.100 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.05", "proxy_ratio": 1.049, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6100, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "median": 6468, "ci80_lo": 6276, "ci80_hi": 6660, "ci95_lo": 6149, "ci95_hi": 6788}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "median": 6857, "ci80_lo": 6450, "ci80_hi": 7264, "ci95_lo": 6198, "ci95_hi": 7553}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "median": 7709, "ci80_lo": 6792, "ci80_hi": 8626, "ci95_lo": 6297, "ci95_hi": 9352}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-06", "eventual_observed": 6686, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-10T12:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.4, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-06", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-13", "eventual_observed": 7258, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-16T00:02:12Z", "within_ci80": true, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 5.8, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-13", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-09-27", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-11T07:44:23Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "7288e75", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 6843, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.01, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.1, "rt_ci_lo": 1.013, "rt_ci_hi": 1.19, "rt_n_cases": 593, "rt_date": "2026-09-08", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.100 [95% CI 1.013\u20131.190]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.100 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.01", "proxy_ratio": 1.01, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6843, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 7255, "ci80_lo": 7040, "ci80_hi": 7470, "ci95_lo": 6897, "ci95_hi": 7614}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 7693, "ci80_lo": 7237, "ci80_hi": 8149, "ci95_lo": 6952, "ci95_hi": 8473}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 8648, "ci80_lo": 7620, "ci80_hi": 9676, "ci95_lo": 7064, "ci95_hi": 10491}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 5.7, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-11T10:00:26Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "8a42288", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 6942, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.024, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.111, "rt_ci_lo": 1.024, "rt_ci_hi": 1.202, "rt_n_cases": 600, "rt_date": "2026-09-09", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.111 [95% CI 1.024\u20131.202]; sustained transmission; contact tracing surge warranted. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "ABOVE_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=1.111 [CI>1.0] (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "68 zones active", "zones_active": 68}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.02", "proxy_ratio": 1.024, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 6942, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 7406, "ci80_lo": 7188, "ci80_hi": 7624, "ci95_lo": 7044, "ci95_hi": 7772}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 7900, "ci80_lo": 7434, "ci80_hi": 8366, "ci95_lo": 7147, "ci95_hi": 8702}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 8990, "ci80_lo": 7925, "ci80_hi": 10055, "ci95_lo": 7358, "ci95_hi": 10908}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 3.6, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-12T14:00:25Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "426b472", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.081, "rt_ci_lo": 0.995, "rt_ci_hi": 1.17, "rt_n_cases": 586, "rt_date": "2026-09-10", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.081; 95% CI [0.995, 1.17] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.081 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "69 zones active", "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 7366, "ci80_lo": 7146, "ci80_hi": 7586, "ci95_lo": 7000, "ci95_hi": 7733}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 7727, "ci80_lo": 7266, "ci80_hi": 8188, "ci95_lo": 6979, "ci95_hi": 8515}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 8502, "ci80_lo": 7485, "ci80_hi": 9519, "ci95_lo": 6936, "ci95_hi": 10326}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": true, "error_pct": 4.2, "direction": "ACCURATE", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-15T13:00:16Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "cbdc4c7", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 1.032, "rt_ci_lo": 0.949, "rt_ci_hi": 1.118, "rt_n_cases": 572, "rt_date": "2026-09-13", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 1.032; 95% CI [0.949, 1.118] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=1.032 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "69 zones active", "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 7159, "ci80_lo": 6943, "ci80_hi": 7375, "ci95_lo": 6800, "ci95_hi": 7520}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 7299, "ci80_lo": 6859, "ci80_hi": 7739, "ci95_lo": 6585, "ci95_hi": 8053}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 7587, "ci80_lo": 6669, "ci80_hi": 8505, "ci95_lo": 6175, "ci95_hi": 9235}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 7.2, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-17T12:00:18Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "3fd59d3", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.997, "rt_ci_lo": 0.916, "rt_ci_hi": 1.081, "rt_n_cases": 561, "rt_date": "2026-09-15", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.997; 95% CI [0.916, 1.081] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.997 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "69 zones active", "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 7009, "ci80_lo": 6795, "ci80_hi": 7223, "ci95_lo": 6654, "ci95_hi": 7366}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 6996, "ci80_lo": 6569, "ci80_hi": 7423, "ci95_lo": 6305, "ci95_hi": 7727}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 6970, "ci80_lo": 6118, "ci80_hi": 7822, "ci95_lo": 5661, "ci95_hi": 8502}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 9.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-18T12:00:25Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "36aabdd", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.942, "rt_ci_lo": 0.863, "rt_ci_hi": 1.023, "rt_n_cases": 533, "rt_date": "2026-09-16", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "Point estimate 0.942; 95% CI [0.863, 1.023] spans 1.0. Sustained transmission cannot be excluded. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "AMBIGUOUS", "evidence": "Rt=0.942 CI spans 1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "LOW"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "69 zones active", "zones_active": 69}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 6769, "ci80_lo": 6557, "ci80_hi": 6981, "ci95_lo": 6415, "ci95_hi": 7121}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 6525, "ci80_lo": 6117, "ci80_hi": 6933, "ci95_lo": 5860, "ci95_hi": 7221}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 6064, "ci80_lo": 5304, "ci80_hi": 6824, "ci95_lo": 4890, "ci95_hi": 7425}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 13.3, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-21T11:00:25Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "fbae6c4", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.865, "rt_ci_lo": 0.79, "rt_ci_hi": 0.942, "rt_n_cases": 494, "rt_date": "2026-09-19", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.790, 0.942] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.865 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "70 zones active", "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 6424, "ci80_lo": 6216, "ci80_hi": 6632, "ci95_lo": 6076, "ci95_hi": 6769}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 5876, "ci80_lo": 5496, "ci80_hi": 6256, "ci95_lo": 5257, "ci95_hi": 6525}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 4918, "ci80_lo": 4280, "ci80_hi": 5556, "ci95_lo": 3936, "ci95_hi": 6064}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-21T12:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 19.4, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-10", "capture_ts": "2026-09-23T14:00:30Z", "epidemic_day": 119, "data_vintage": "a0b4ee1", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 6778, "source": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "inrb_confirmed": 7022, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3269, "deaths_drc": 3267, "recovered_total": 1611, "confirmed_drc": 6757, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 1.036, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON617 (2026-09-07)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.778, "rt_ci_lo": 0.707, "rt_ci_hi": 0.852, "rt_n_cases": 442, "rt_date": "2026-09-21", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.707, 0.852] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.778 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "70 zones active", "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 1.04", "proxy_ratio": 1.036, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7022, "c0_source": "inrb", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "median": 6019, "ci80_lo": 5812, "ci80_hi": 6226, "ci95_lo": 5675, "ci95_hi": 6364}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "median": 5159, "ci80_lo": 4805, "ci80_hi": 5513, "ci95_lo": 4587, "ci95_hi": 5768}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "median": 3790, "ci80_lo": 3267, "ci80_hi": 4313, "ci95_lo": 2996, "ci95_hi": 4738}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-09-17", "eventual_observed": 7672, "eventual_source": "INRB_UMIE_national_confirmed", "eval_ts": "2026-09-23T15:00:25Z", "within_ci80": false, "within_ci95": false, "error_pct": 27.5, "direction": "UNDERESTIMATED", "eventual_observed_date": "2026-09-19", "note": "eventual_observed is the latest reconciled INRB-UMIE surveillance data \u2014 not a ground truth (outbreak surveillance never achieves complete ascertainment)."}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-09-24", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-08", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}
{"knowledge_date": "2026-09-25", "capture_ts": "2026-09-25T18:14:10Z", "epidemic_day": 134, "data_vintage": "8231c6b", "evidence": {"confirmed_cases": 7911, "source": "WHO DON618 (2026-09-23)", "inrb_confirmed": 7773, "inrb_via_system": true, "deaths_total": 3801, "deaths_drc": 3799, "recovered_total": 1987, "confirmed_drc": 7890, "confirmed_abroad": 21, "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance": {"inrb_headline_ratio": 0.983, "reporting_completeness": "PARTIAL", "confirmation_rate": 0.852, "source_label": "WHO DON618 (2026-09-23)", "note": "INRB/headline ratio >1 indicates headline source may undercount; ratio <1 indicates INRB and headline sources diverge in opposite direction."}, "transmission": {"rt_estimate": 0.778, "rt_ci_lo": 0.707, "rt_ci_hi": 0.852, "rt_n_cases": 442, "rt_date": "2026-09-21", "rt_method": "Cori et al. 2013 (EpiEstim sliding-window posterior)", "si_mean_d": 11.4, "si_sd_d": 5.0, "si_source": "MacNeil et al. 2010 BDBV DRC; Legrand et al. 2007", "right_truncated": true, "truncation_window_d": 12, "contemporaneous_interpretation": "95% CI [0.707, 0.852] lies below 1.0; consistent with a declining epidemic, but ongoing transmission possible. Note: this estimate is within the right-truncation window (~12 d) and likely underestimates current transmission intensity."}, "decision_dimensions": {"transmission": {"assessment": "BELOW_THRESHOLD", "evidence": "Rt=0.778 CI<1.0 (possibly underestimated due to right-truncation)", "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "geographic_spread": {"assessment": "WIDESPREAD", "evidence": "70 zones active", "zones_active": 70}, "surveillance_quality": {"assessment": "CONCORDANT", "evidence": "INRB/headline ratio 0.98", "proxy_ratio": 0.983, "confidence": "MODERATE"}, "cross_border_spread": {"assessment": "ACTIVE_CROSS_BORDER", "evidence": "21 confirmed abroad", "confirmed_abroad": 21}, "diagnostic_capacity": {"assessment": "ADEQUATE", "evidence": "Confirmation rate 85.2%"}}, "projections": {"method": "exponential_rt", "c0_used": 7911, "c0_source": "headline", "caveat": "Assumes stationary Rt over projection horizon. Does not account for interventions, behavioural change, or right-truncation bias. Right-truncated Rt estimates produce conservative (low) projections.", "horizon_7d": {"target_date": "2026-10-02", "median": 6781, "ci80_lo": 6548, "ci80_hi": 7014, "ci95_lo": 6394, "ci95_hi": 7170}, "horizon_14d": {"target_date": "2026-10-09", "median": 5812, "ci80_lo": 5413, "ci80_hi": 6211, "ci95_lo": 5168, "ci95_hi": 6498}, "horizon_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-23", "median": 4270, "ci80_lo": 3681, "ci80_hi": 4859, "ci95_lo": 3376, "ci95_hi": 5338}}, "evaluation": {"eval_7d": {"target_date": "2026-10-02", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_14d": {"target_date": "2026-10-09", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}, "eval_28d": {"target_date": "2026-10-23", "eventual_observed": null, "eventual_source": null, "eval_ts": null, "within_ci80": null, "within_ci95": null, "error_pct": null, "direction": null}}}